Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Why Android would lose the tablet race, even if it were started again today

Tuesday, July 26th, 2011

I’ve written before about fanboys and the difficulty of maintaining a neutral point of view. So, to declare my interest, I’m mostly backing Android in the mobile OS wars: it isn’t perfect, but it’s better than the alternatives.

Saying that Android is going to lose the tablet wars isn’t exactly sticking my neck out. I’d like to defend a bolder claim, however: Android would lose if the tablet wars were restarted today, without Apple’s massive entrenched lead in apps, marketing and mindshare. The makers of Android tablets scored a catastrophic own-goal by waiting to see whether the iPad would be successful before committing themselves to making competing products. Implicit in all the Android apologist’s reviews of new Android tablets is the idea that Apple’s head start is the reason they’re more successful, and that Android has merely to catch up lost ground (a bit of battery life here, an optimised UI there) and it’ll once again be a level playing field. The Apple fans rightly mock this as grading on a curve, and yet it might be justified if the apologists were right that Android will inevitably catch up. Unfortunately, they’re wrong.

Apple make their devices differently. They have full control over the OS and the hardware, and design them from very early on in the product cycle to work together. Apple deliberately aims at a subset of the market, and eschews features that this market segment doesn’t want. They have mastered the art of taking features out of a product.

Tablets are not just bigger phones or smaller laptops, they are used entirely differently. Tables are consumption devices much more than they are creation devices. They excel in cases where a keyboard isn’t needed or gets in the way, but at the price of losing flexibility. People aren’t using tablets for web development. They aren’t doing serious photo manipulation. Or non-trivial data analysis.

It seems to me that the aspects in which tablets excel are exactly the aspects in which Apple excels. People who want tablets want a streamlined convenient experience, and are prepared to compromise on features in order to get it. Plenty of people exist who want more out of their mobile computing device than this, but they aren’t buying Android tablets (and they’re definitely not buying those clip-on-keyboard hybrid abomninations): they just aren’t buying tablets at all.

It seems to me that this whole argument has a persistent technology myth baked into it: that since technology B arrived later than technology A, it is a suitable direct replacement for it. Tablet computers required a lot more technological progress to get right than laptops did, but that doesn’t mean that they will replace laptops like Homo Sapiens replaced Neanderthal man. TV has yet to stamp out radio, because the latter allows you to do things (like driving a car or cooking dinner) that the former doesn’t. Voice calling never “replaced” SMS (which in fact flourished long after voice calling), just as video calling shows no signs of making a dent on voice calling. The vast majority of content on the web is still text and not video (or audio), since video is not a better text.

New technologies are less disruptive than this, and in a different sense more disruptive. Less disruptive in the sense that the old market doesn’t go away or even change that greatly, but more so in the sense that you often need a whole different approach to succeed in the new market. Right now Apple is the only company that has what it takes to take full advantage of the tablet market, and if any rival does appear I doubt it will be based on Android.

You should work for Arista

Monday, February 28th, 2011

I’d like to take a moment to burn some of my hard-earned karma and explain to you why you should apply for a job with my current employer, Arista Networks. If you spend your spare time reading tech blogs like this one, you may be just the sort of person we’re looking for.

Arista is a successful company that is growing fast, hiring smart people as fast as we can find them. We are looking for software developers in London UK, San Francisco Bay Area and Bangalore. To my mind, we offer the best of both the start-up and established company worlds. The company has a highly meritocratic, engineering-led culture where the best ideas win wherever they come from. The company is pre-IPO and able to offer share options with potential for very substantial upside. There are still lots of tough technical challenges to be completed. At the same time, the product has proved itself in the market place and we have established plenty of satisfied customers.

In any job, the thing that makes the most difference is the people you’ll be working with. Arista people are very smart, some fearsomely so, but also maintain a uniformly high standard of helpfulness and friendliness.

For more information about the opportunities available see our careers page. If you want to know more or to apply, I’d appreciate it if you’d contact me directly to let me know that you saw this post, but you can also speak to the company directly at jobs@aristanetworks.com.

Though I work for Arista, this is a personal blog post and represents only my personal views, not those of my employer. They didn’t tell me to write this, and indeed probably don’t know I’ve done so. Please check any facts with an official company source before you make decisions based on them. I’m writing this primarily because I want to see the company succeed, but I also stand to make a small financial gain on anyone I refer to the compay.

Ten pin, bwana?

Thursday, November 25th, 2010

You can’t spend long living in Lusaka without being made aware of the depths of poverty in the world—but you could get the same from reading a decent newspaper. What living here impresses upon you that you might not otherwise realise is the scale of the problem. There are 2-3 million people living in Lusaka alone (estimates vary since so many people are outside the formal economy) and the majority are living in what from my perspective seems to be extreme poverty. Though at times it makes me feel extremely wealthy (a single trip to the cashpoint for me might be three month’s wages for many people here), I can’t ignore the fact that even if I were to give away every last kwacha, it wouldn’t make a dent in the problem.

To me, the sensible response to this is to reinforce sympathy with a degree of pragmatism. If I can’t make much impact, I can at least reassure myself that any money I might give is targetted so as to produce maximum effect. And therein lies a problem.

It’s not politically correct to talk about this, but I don’t exactly blend in here, and while race doesn’t correlate perfectly with poverty, it’s a pretty safe bet that if you see a white person they will have money to spare. The upshot is that there is no shortage of people approaching me asking for money. The problem that gets to me is whether the people who don’t or can’t ask me for money need it more.

The areas I tend to frequent are naturally the wealthy parts of town. The people who come into contact with me, therefore, are typically people with jobs that give them access to such areas (and there are usually security guards around to ensure that undesirables don’t get through). Though they may well be in crushing poverty, they are unlikely to be at the bottom of the heap.

I believe the process of donating money can work in two ways: you can be motivated by the desire to see greater justice in the world and the recognition that such justice is a greater personal reward than whatever else you might spend the money on (I’ll call this feel-good charity). Or you can be motivated by guilt, shame or embarrassment, and donate in order to assuage that feeling (I’ll call this feel-bad charity). I would contend that, quite apart from the pleasure it gives, feel-good charity should be embraced (and feel-bad charity avoided) since it tends to lead to better decisions on giving in the most efficient way.

Don’t misunderstand me: this isn’t just about emotions versus rationality. Though it’s true that rationality is the main advantage of feel-good charity, it needn’t be an emotionally sterile experience. Personally, my reaction to the injustice of someone working harder than I do to bring home a few dollars a day is just as emotive as the pitying of someone living in squalor.

So how can we recognise and avoid feel-bad charity? One clue, I think, is the presence of cues designed to make you feel good about giving. Over here, someone asking for money often addresses you as “bwana” (roughly, “sir” or “boss”) in an effort to curry favour. If you give them anything at all, you are usually thanked effusively and often wished God’s blessing. Tellingly, the amount of money requested is usually minimised, as if to reassure you that both parties understand you want to get out of this uncomfortable situation with as little impact on your life as possible.

I’m going to make the bold assertion that all these things are wrong. Not just irrelevant, but actively harmful to the cause of bringing about a more just world. I don’t mean to say that the respect and gratitude people show isn’t sincere, though they wouldn’t be human if the feeling wasn’t mixed with a measure of unspoken resentment and envy.

If I recognise that someone has been unjustly treated in life, then I should be helping them (and taking satisfaction from helping them) regardless of how grateful or otherwise they are, and regardless of whether they thank me for it. I should also be offering whatever help they need, not paying just enough to make it someone else’s problem. To make fighting injustice contingent on the recipient’s thanks is degrading to them and, in some sense, to me.

Now comes the tricky part of the argument: I would encourage people to actively avoid feel-bad charity—and that means ignoring pleas for help when you might otherwise have yielded to them. Worse, since feel-good charity is often less frequent and less visible than giving loose change to beggars, it might appear that I’m encouraging people not to give at all. Saying that giving money to beggars only encourages further degrading behaviour is, sadly, an argument that’s been used to justify giving nothing at all, and that would definitely be worse than the status quo.

Feel-bad charity may be easy to identify and avoid, but feel-good charity has to be actively sought, and I’m afraid I don’t have any good answers here. For a time I was very encouraged by microfinance and the likes of kiva.org as a way of bringing out the best in the charitable process, but I worry that this alone can’t solve some of the bigger-picture issues of infrastructure that are clearly important. In any case, you have to be a great believer in trickle-down economics to convince yourself that microfinance can substantially benefit the most needy. In my view charities ought to fill the gap here by using expert knowledge to ensure that money is allocated efficiently, but it seems to me that in practice capital allocation is driven as much by PR and internal politics as it is by objective need.

Does anyone else have any good ideas? Suggestions welcome.